Wales’ First Minister faces an uphill battle to gain a seat in May’s elections for the new-look Senedd as Labour continues to haemorrhage votes across the country according to latest polling.

Eluned Morgan, who has served as First Minister and leader of the Labour Party in Wales since July 2024, has represented the Mid and West Wales region in the Senedd since 2016.

The next election in May 2026 will see an expanded Senedd – with 96 elected members up from the current 60 – along with the creation of 16 super constituencies, with each selecting six Senedd Members.

Baroness Morgan tops the Labour list for candidates for the newly-created Ceredigion Penfro seat, but latest polling suggests that she may struggle to secure the votes needed to gain one of the six seats available.

A new YouGov poll predicts that Plaid Cymru will be the largest party in Cardiff Bay after the Senedd elections in May.

The poll, conducted by YouGov for Cardiff University, has revealed that Labour’s predicted vote share for the Senedd has now fallen to 10 per cent, while Plaid Cymru continue to lead with 33 per cent (up three per cent). Reform UK’s support – at 30 per cent – remains unchanged since the September ITV Wales YouGov poll.

Labour’s vote has fallen four per cent since that September poll, and continues to plummet for a party which secured more than 36 per cent of the vote at the last Senedd election in 2021.

Wales will adopt a “closed-list” electoral system from 2026, with the electorate voting for political parties rather than specific candidates on the ballot paper.

The D’Hondt method of selecting candidates means that if the 10 per cent national vote share was reflected across the country – the uniform swing projection for Ceredigion Penfro would see Labour miss out on gaining one of the six seats.

While national polling can accurately reflect individual seat voting intentions, the Cambrian News understands that Baroness Morgan and her team are concerned about the latest polling and what it could mean for her Senedd ambitions for 2026 and beyond.

In August, Baroness Morgan admitted her future “wasn’t certain”.

The latest YouGov poll does not have individual seat projections, with more modelled polling from across Wales likely to be undertaken by various polling organisations in the New Year in the run up to the elections.

For now, the national polling suggest that a two horse race is developing between Plaid Cymru and Reform UK to be the largest party – but the expansion of the Senedd and the proportional representation model used to select candidates mean a majority government in May is extremely unlikely on the current polling numbers.

Dr Jac Larner of the Wales Governance Centre at Cardiff University models Plaid Cymru to take 39 seats across Wales on the latest polling numbers, with Reform UK claiming 34.

That means the largest party would have to look for partners to be able to form a majority working government, with a left-leaning coalition led by Plaid Cymru with Rhun ap Iorwerth as First Minister the most likely outcome if the latest numbers hold.

Labour would be left with just 10 seats, Dr Larner’s model suggests – with Baroness Morgan missing out on a seat in a bloodbath for Labour Senedd Members.

Labour currently has 29 seats – one short of a majority – with the polls suggesting 19 Labour senedd members will be lost, including several from the current government Cabinet.

The latest polling has left Plaid Cymru and Reform UK saying that a change is coming for Wales, after 26 years of continual Labour rule since the creation of the-then Welsh Assembly in 1999.

A Plaid Cymru spokesperson said: “Something big is truly happening in Wales.

“Coming so soon after our Caerphilly by-election win, this poll shows the momentum is firmly with Plaid Cymru and that next year’s election is shaping up to be a straight choice for Wales’ future.

“After years in power, Labour have given up on Wales.

“People are tired of broken promises and being taken for granted and yearning for something new: fairness, ambition, and a government that finally puts Wales first.

“At the next election, the people of Wales face two choices of two futures.

“One is a party rooted in Wales, focused on improving our NHS, public services, and helping families with the cost of living.

“The other is a billionaire-backed party that would privatise our NHS and take Wales backwards.

“This is a two-horse race, and only Plaid Cymru brings a positive vision, can stop Reform and deliver the new leadership Wales deserves.

“We’re taking nothing for granted, but if people want new leadership and a government that’s on Wales’ side, the choice is clear - get involved and vote Plaid Cymru on 7 May 2026.”

A spokesperson for Reform UK Wales said: “It’s clear to everybody here in Wales that the next Senedd Election will be a two horse race between Reform and Plaid.

“With Plaid, Wales will get more of the same extreme policies that we’ve had from Plaid and Labour working in tandem in Cardiff Bay.

“Meanwhile, Reform will be fighting to restore common sense to Welsh politics, and to deliver real change for our communities here in Wales.”

The Labour Party in Wales has not responded publicly to the latest poll.

In a joint statement, Dr Larner and Dr James Griffiths of Manchester University argue that Wales is experiencing a realignment of political support that differs from UK-wide trends.

“Evidence of a political realignment in Wales continues to grow: real world election results and multiple survey datasets from a variety of different providers point to a very different Senedd election in 2026,” they said.

“For the first time in a century, Welsh Labour faces the prospect of opposition or junior coalition partnership.

“That prospect, more than any survey, signals how profound this realignment truly is.

“The bloc structure that has organised Welsh politics for decades persists, but the hierarchy within those blocs has been overturned.”