Space storms could soon be forecasted with greater accuracy than ever before, according to researchers at Aberystwyth University, thanks to a leap forward in understanding exactly when a violent solar eruption may hit Earth.

Scientists say it is now possible to predict the precise speed a coronal mass ejection (CME) is travelling at and when it will smash into our planet – even before it has fully erupted from the Sun.

CMEs are bursts of gas and magnetic fields spewed into space from the solar atmosphere.

They can cause geomagnetic storms that have the potential to wreak havoc with terrestrial technology in Earth's orbit and on its surface, which is why experts are striving to improve space weather forecasts.

Aberystwyth University researchers made their discovery after studying specific areas on the Sun called 'Active Regions', which have strong magnetic fields where CMEs are born.

The researchers monitored how these areas changed in the periods before, during and after an eruption.

A vital aspect which they looked at was the "critical height" of the Active Regions, which is the height at which the magnetic field becomes unstable and can lead to a CME.

"By measuring how the strength of the magnetic field decreases with height, we can determine this critical height," lead researcher Harshita Gandhi, a solar physicist at Aberystwyth University said.

"This data can then be used along with a geometric model which is used to track the true speed of CMEs in three dimensions, rather than just two, which is essential for precise predictions.

"Our findings reveal a strong relationship between the critical height at CME onset and the true CME speed. This insight helps us to predict the CME's speed and, consequently, its arrival time on Earth, even before the CME has fully erupted.

“While the correlation between critical height and CME speed is useful, it should not be the sole basis for predictions in new active regions due to their magnetic complexity.

“A comprehensive model incorporating additional parameters and uncertainties is necessary for reliable predictions.

"Understanding and using the critical height in our forecasts improves our ability to warn about incoming CMEs, helping to protect the technology that our modern lives depend on.

"Our research not only enhances our understanding of the Sun's explosive behaviour but also significantly improves our ability to forecast space weather events.

“This means better preparation and protection for the technological systems we rely on every day.”