Events come and go; most are of passing interest. But occasionally things happen that herald much more significant change. I wonder whether we are living through that right now. If so, where does that leave us and how do we prepare for the future?

The World Economic Forum in Davos is an annual jamboree attended by a few important people and lots of hangers on. This year Donald Trump dominated the show. His behaviour over Greenland was typically crass and unnecessary. His “Board of Peace” suggesting that everything can be fixed by a real estate transaction, shows frightening signs of megalomania.

But it was his profound ignorance of NATO’s recent history that was the real worry. Questioning the commitment of member countries to come to the USA’s help in time of crisis, he clearly didn’t know that the only time Article 5 (attack one, you attack all) has been invoked is by the USA post 9/11. Many NATO members, and others, responded to the call including the UK, and to suggest they stayed behind the front line whilst only Americans did the fighting is as untrue as it is insulting; we all remember the funeral corteges through Royal Wootton Bassett.

The US President is their Commander in Chief, and de facto NATO’s too. Any half decent officer knows that they must earn the loyalty of their subordinates. Showing respect for those who have fought and especially those who have died is an absolute prerequisite. The pushback against Trump by US Veterans is damning; they remember their brothers in arms.

Our ability to rely on the USA as a benign hegemon has long since gone. Too many European countries (us included) have freeloaded for far too long. We need to wake up, smell the coffee and actually do something, now.

Security demands a velvet glove, filled with an iron fist. We need diplomacy, soft power, multilateral co-operation but also good intelligence, a sound industrial base and well trained and equipped armed forces of sufficient capacity to look after our interests. No one is suggesting a return to empire; but the truth is we have hollowed out our defence capability and need to put that right.

Instead of asking what we can afford, we should ask what do we need? And then we have to allocate the money and if that means welfare cuts, so be it. It is beyond insane that the 16-24 year old NEET “army”, is twelve times the size of the British Army. This is a choice and our political leaders need to start making the right one.

Decisions need to be grounded in hard reality; we aren’t a world power any longer. In truth we aren’t even at the top of division two. We need to focus on the biggest threats and get the most “bangs for the buck” to counter them. As an ex- Navy man it breaks my heart to say this: but there is no point in having two 65,000 ton Carriers which we can’t afford to equip or protect, whilst we can’t defend the vital undersea cables on which our economy depends. Likewise, is a strategic nuclear deterrent the best use of our money? Tough questions!

If Putin ups the ante, then that’s likely to be an attack on the Baltic States or Finland. Our Army and the RAF need to be trained and equipped to make a real immediate impact in support of their defence.

Some will portray this as jingoistic nonsense. They should stop off at any village War Memorial in Ceredigion. Look at the names of those who died in the Second World War. They didn’t have to. Hitler could have been stopped but the fool’s gold of appeasement was too tempting. There’s no need to repeat that mistake.