A move to close all sixth forms in Ceredigion and replace them with just one site in a bid to save cash will be considered following a review which found sixth form provision in the county is too expensive and is “unsustainable.”

Last year, Ceredigion County Council’s cabinet gave the green light to begin a review of sixth forms in Ceredigion, and a report was put before the Learning Communities Overview and Scrutiny Committee on 28 September.

The options outlined in the review include closing some sixth forms in a bid to bring the cost to the council and schools down, or closing them all to centralise them on just one site.

The report said that estimated cost of running sixth form courses in 2023-24 is £4,194,750, which is £408,519 more than the sixth form grant from the Welsh Government.

With other costs taken into account, the report said, “it is clear that the Post-16 grant from the Welsh Government is not sufficient to maintain post-16 provision in its current form in Ceredigion as the expenditure is between £1,571,897 and £1,820,799 more than the value of the grant.”

“All but one school in Ceredigion have to use core 11-16 funding to varying degrees to maintain their sixth forms,” the report said.

“Ysgol Penglais is the exception, where relatively large numbers in the sixth form allow more viable classes and economies of scale to maintain their provision.”

Against the backdrop of funding issues, the review lays out options that include the “most far-reaching” choice of centralising in one centre of excellence in the county – a concept that the report says has the support of the council’s chief executive and strategic director.

A centre of excellence would be managed by other partners such as Hyfforddiant Ceredigion Training and Coleg Ceredigion, and be outside the control of Ceredigion County Council.

The report said that moving to that option would mean “without having to maintain a sixth form, schools would be free to spend all money delegated by the local authority for 11-16 education”.

“There would be a clear responsibility and opportunity to ensure greater fairness and equal opportunity for all learners in the county,” under that option, the report says, but acknowledges it would “destabilise Ceredigion’s current post-16 organisation” and “could create significant local opposition”.

“Staff and unions could see this option as one that would threaten job security and morale,” the report adds.

“That could create significant uncertainty in the schools.”

Having one ‘centre of excellence’ in the county would “also expand the offer and limit the numbers of non-viable classes,” the report adds.

Cambrian News sources understand that Ysgol Aberaeron is the preferred location should the council opt for one site.

“This option would offer a more far-reaching change,” the report says. “It would mean closing the current post-16 provision and establishing a Centre of Excellence, involving a range of partners, at one or more suitable geographical sites.”

Another option in a bid to save cash would be to close some sixth forms in the county – Ceredigion currently has provision at Ysgol Penweddig, Ysgol Penglais, Ysgol Bro Teifi, Ysgol Bro Pedr, Ysgol Aberaeron and Ysgol Aberteifi – while some would remain open.

“Closing the post-16 provision of one or more schools while keeping others open would likely create animosity between areas and the perception that some areas are gaining at the expense of other areas,” the report said, and it may “fail to effectively address the significant financial challenges facing the authority and the schools”.

The options outlined in the review include closing some sixth forms in a bid to bring the cost to the council and schools down, or closing them all to centralise them on just one site.

Option 1 - Maintain the current situation

The report says the current arrangements do not effectively address the significant financial challenges facing the authority.

Option 2 - Develop the current situation

Post-16 provision would continue on the six existing sites.

The six current governing boards would continue with their current roles in terms of governance up to 16 but agree with the local authority to form a Strategic Board which would manage the authority’s post-16 budget, ensure suitable arrangements for joint planning of the curriculum and then commission the provision from the schools, e-sgol and other partners.

Option 3 - Provision in some schools

This option would mean closing the post-16 provision at one or more sites. Then, as in Option 2, those governing boards would continue with their current roles in terms of governance up until the age of 16 and agree with the local authority to form a Strategic Board that would be responsible for monitoring the quality of the provision and make recommendations to the local authority and the providers for improvement.

Option 4 - Provision in one centre

This option would offer a more far-reaching change. It would mean closing the current post-16 provision and establishing a Centre of Excellence, involving a range of partners, at one or more suitable geographical sites. A governing body independent of the schools would be responsible for the funding and the curriculum and would appoint a small number of core staff to steer and manage the work.

Keeping the status quo is not feasible, the report outlines because “the current arrangements do not effectively address the significant financial challenges facing the authority and the schools, and schools will continue to rely on 11-16 funding to provide subsidies to maintain post-16 education”.

The other option outlined – developing partnerships between schools to deliver post-16 courses – was also scotched by the report.

Courses are currently delivered across some school sites, including Penweddig pupils taking German lessons in Crickhowell in Powys, but the report says that the “slowness of partnership developments to date” suggests that continuing on this path would not deliver the improvements quickly enough or to the necessary extent.

The report outlined that Ceredigion’s retention rate for pupils joining sixth forms has fallen across the past five years, and now only 54 per cent of Year 11 pupils remain in school into Year 12.

At its peak, the retention rate was 69 per cent in 2017-18.

The overall numbers of year 12 learners within Ceredigion schools’ sixth forms have fallen from 535 in 2014/15 to 390 in 2020/21.

“The reduction in learner numbers has had a negative impact on the funding awarded by the Welsh Government for post-16 provision in Ceredigion,” the report said.

“Following two stable years in 2020/21 and 2021/22, the 2022/23 financial year saw a reduction of over £273,000 (7.05 per cent) in funding, the highest reduction of any authority in Wales.

“The predictions in terms of future learner numbers do not suggest that this funding will be recovered soon.”

The review gathered 1,306 responses from pupils, parents and staff.

The report says that suggestions including using Aberystwyth and Cardigan as locations for centres, while “others wished to combine the sixth forms in the schools in Aberystwyth” or “combine timetables and allow staff to travel between schools”.

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