YouGov’s first seat-by-seat projection of the 2024 election shows that Plaid Cymru will hold the new-look Ceredigion and Dwyfor Meirionnydd seats, that Labour is on course to make gains across Wales, and the Conservatives facing “significant defeats” UK-wide.

The projections shows Labour is set to take 28 seats compared to just two each for the Conservatives (Brecon, Radnor and Cwm Tawe, Montgomeryshire and Glyndwr) and Plaid Cymru (Ceredigion Preseli, Dwyfor Meirionnydd).

A number of the Conservative losses are in traditional Labour areas that went Conservative at the last election such as Wrexham and Bridgend.

The Conservative held Ynys Mon that they won in a three-way battle again Labour and Plaid Cymru last time is likely to just be a two-way fight this time between Labour and Plaid.

The results would see Conservatives losing 12 of its 14 Welsh seats, but clinging on in the new look Montgomeryshire Glyndwr seat where Craig Williams is predicted to be re-elected.

The enlarged and renamed Ceredigion Preseli constituency would be retained by Plaid’s Ben Lake, with the party’s Liz Saville-Roberts also holding Dwyfor Meirionnydd.

Welsh constituencies have been renamed and boundaries redrawn for this election, with the total number of MPs dropping from 40 to 32.

Across Great Britain, Labour is projected to secure a landslide victory, increasing its number of seats from 202 in 2019 to 422 in 2024.

The Conservatives are set to suffer significant defeats, securing just 140 seats across the country.

This would be the fewest number of Conservative MPs since 1906 and bigger than their defeat of 1997.

Most significantly, notable members of the party – including Grant Shapps, Jeremy Hunt, Penny Mordaunt and Jacob Rees-Mogg – are projected to lose their seats.

The traditional Tory heartlands of Maidenhead (Theresa May’s old seat) and Surrey Heath (Michael Gove’s former constituency) are going to be tightly fought between Conservatives and Lib Dems with their former Tory representatives standing down.

Meanwhile despite securing widespread support, Reform UK is set to take no Westminster seats, although this analysis was conducted before news of Nigel Farage announced he would be standing as a candidate in Clacton.