Plaid Cymru are expected to retain a new look Ceredigion and Dwyfor Meirionnydd seats while Labour gains an enlarged Montgomeryshire seat from the Conservatives who are slated to lose hundreds of seats across the UK ahead of an expected General Election in the autumn.
With a date not yet announced for the UK election which will have to take place before 25 January next year, four candidates have already chucked their hats into the ring for the new-look , enlarged and renamed Ceredigion Preseli seat, with four named so far in Dwyfor Meirionnydd and five in the running for the new Montgomeryshire and Glyndwr seat in Powys.
For the 2024 election, the Ceredigion seat will take on part of the axed Preseli Pembrokeshire seat in north Pembrokeshire – including Crymych and Maenclochog - to create Ceredigion Preseli.
The Montgomeryshire constituency, which is home to Machynlleth and Llanidloes, will be enlarged to take on parts of Clwyd South to become Montgomeryshire & Glyndŵr.
An extended Dwyfor Meirionnydd seat will incorporate several wards from the current Arfon constituency, but will retain its name.
The changes were part of a Boundary Commission project to cut the number of Welsh seats in the House of Commons from 40 to 32.
The enlarged Ceredigion constituency will see the county take on a south boundary last used more than 25 years ago.
Ceredigion and Pembroke North was a constituency until 1997.
The Ceredigion Preseli constituency will have 74,063 electors.
Polls suggest a comfortable Plaid Cymru victory in Ceredigion Preseli, with a landslide Labour victory UK-wide.
So far, four candidates from major parties have been named as in the running to contest Ceredigion Preseli, with other parties including Reform UK and independent candidates also expected to run.
Candidates announced so far are Plaid Cymru’s Ben Lake – who has represented Ceredigion in Westminster since 2017; Liberal Democrat Mark Williams, formerly the MP for Ceredigion from 2005 to 2017; Welsh Labour’s Jackie Jones; and Pembrokeshire county councillor Aled Thomas who will be standing for the Welsh Conservatives.
Mr Lake has represented Ceredigion in Westminster since 2017, increasing his majority in the 2019 election to 6,329 votes.
Mr Lake said: “It has been an immense privilege to serve the people of Ceredigion as their Member of Parliament since 2017.
"I am thrilled to have been given the opportunity to seek re-election to not only continue to represent my home county at Westminster, but also to serve the communities of north Pembrokeshire - from St Dogmaels and Fishguard, to Maenclochog, Crymych and Llanrhian.
“There will no doubt be a fierce contest for this new seat, but I look forward to the challenge. I have been greatly encouraged by the warm reception I have received when speaking to people during my recent visits to Fishguard and Nevern.
“My priorities were I to be elected as the Member of Parliament for Ceredigion Preseli are clear – a fair deal for rural communities, investment in infrastructure and increased funding for public services, and a thriving, sustainable economy that has the needs of communities rather than those of large corporations as its focus.”
Mark Williams was MP for Ceredigion from 2005 to 2017, when he lost his seat to Mr Lake in a close result.
He said: “I am delighted to once again be our candidate in my home constituency, the place where we live, where my children have grown up and thrived, and in which I passionately believe has so much potential.
“Ceredigion is a wonderful place in which to live, but all too often is overlooked by UK Government Westminster and the Welsh Government in Cardiff Bay.
“That is why Ceredigion needs a strong voice to champion it in Parliament and why I’m going to be working hard to win back the seat and put Ceredigion’s interests first.
“I am looking forward to putting forward my party’s message on the doorsteps of Preseli, and across Ceredigion, not least our measures to help people with the cost-of-living crisis, and promote the agricultural sector.
“There is a battle for hearts and minds across our new constituency, and I believe I have the energy and experience to win it.”
Welsh Labour’s Jackie Jones said: “We desperately need a Labour government in Westminster and a strong voice for Ceredigion Preseli.
“After 13 years of the Tories’ mismanagement of the economy, prevalent corruption and neglect we’re all dealing with the cost of food in our shops up, the cost of fuel up and energy prices still sky-high.”
Aled Thomas said: "I am truly honoured that Welsh Conservative members of the new Ceredigion Preseli constituency have put their trust in me to represent them at the next general election.
"Being schooled wholly in Welsh at Ysgol Y Preseli and working as an agronomist across Ceredigion has given me a strong affiliation to the constituency and its associated issues.
"Labour and Plaid Cymru have badly let down rural communities in North Pembrokeshire and Ceredigion with their Senedd policies, and I cannot stand by and let further decline happen.
"I'm looking forward to getting out on the doorstep, talking to people and championing rural issues over the coming weeks and months."
The new constituency has the unusual situation of part of it currently occupied, to the north, by Plaid Cymru, and, to the south, part of the current Conservative-held Preseli Pembrokeshire.
The latter seat, occupied by Welsh Conservative MP Stephen Crabb, is to disappear, with Mr Crabb standing in the adjoining newly created seat of Mid and South Pembrokeshire.
Incumbent MP Liz Saville Roberts has been announced again as running for the seat in Dwyfor Meirionnydd, with three other names also throwing their hats into the ring.
Tomos Day will stand for the Welsh Conservatives, with Joanna Stallard as the Welsh Labour candidate and Janet Balfe standing for Reform UK.
Mrs Saville Roberts said: "It is an honour to be selected unopposed by Plaid Cymru members to fight the new Dwyfor Meirionnydd constituency at the next general election.
"I am extremely grateful to party members in Dwyfor and Meirionnydd for putting their faith in me once again, and to members in Arfon and Edeirnion for selecting me as their new parliamentary candidate.”
Tomos Day said it was “an honour to have been chosen” to challenge for the Dwyfor Meirionnydd seat.
“Like most people, I am deeply concerned about standards of healthcare in our area and the fact that the local health board has been left to struggle,” he said.
“The people of Dwyfor Meirionnydd deserve much better.”
Joanna Stallard, for Labour, was previously a parliamentary researcher for former MP Susan Elan Jones.
Current Montgomeryshire MP Craig Williams will stand for the new Montgomeryshire & Glyndwr seat for the Welsh Conservatives and faces a battel to retain the seat against Welsh Labour candidate Steve Witherden.
Also standing are Llanidloes County Councillor Glyn Preston as candidate for the Welsh Liberal Democrats, local councillor Jeremy Brignell-Thorp standing for the Green Party, Glantwymyn county councillor Elwyn Vaughan standing for Plaid Cymru and Oliver Lewis standing for Reform UK.
Mr Williams said: "I am delighted to have been selected by the Montgomeryshire & Glyndwr Conservative Association as their Parliamentary candidate for the General Election.
“It has been a great honour to have represented Montgomeryshire, my home constituency, as it’s Member of Parliament for the last five years.
“Much progress has been made, with millions of pounds of Conservative Government funding delivered for the area, as well as significantly enhanced mobile & broadband coverage and key transport infrastructure projects secured.
“There is much more to do, and I very much hope to be able to continue this work after the election.”
Predicted winner, teacher Steve Witherden for Welsh Labour, said he was “standing because as a teacher I see the devastating consequence of Tory cuts every day in my job.”
“That gives me the knowledge and the experience to help the next Labour Government reverse that damage in power,” he said.
“I know that not only do we need a Labour MP to get rid of the Tories, but we need a Labour MP who will ensure Montgomeryshire and Glyndŵr stays Labour for years to come.”
Glyn Preston said: “I love where I live. It’s my home. I left for university and came back because it’s such a wonderful place to live, but far too few young people have returned. They love it here, but they don’t see the opportunities for the future. Jobs are the major barrier.
“I’d like to stop that ‘brain drain’, and make sure that more young, skilled people and their families feel able to stay in here.
“Montgomeryshire & Glyndŵr needs an MP that they can trust, one that will represent people, of all ages and backgrounds.”
Jeremy Brignell-Thorp said he was “pleased to be standing as the offical Green Party candidate in Montgomeryshire and Glyndwr.”
“The Green Party is the only party taking the climate emergency seriously - and this is the defining issue of this century,” he said.
Elwyn Vaughan said: “It’s a privilege to be chosen as the candidate for Montgomeryshire & Glyndwr.
“As the keeper of the old Welsh liberal tradition of Cymru Fydd – we will focus on environmental and community sustainability and supporting an entrepreneurial and can do attitude in Montgomeryshire – a essential element when we face continued depopulation and loss of our young people.”
Oliver Lewis said he would be “campaigning to modernise the county’s infrastructure, to provide a dual carriageway from Shrewsbury to Welshpool, electrification of the Cambrian Line to Aberystwyth, and, by dismantling Powys, restoration of a County Council for Montgomeryshire, based in Newtown.”
Electoral Calculus predicts that Ben Lake will increase his vote share, retaining Ceredigion for Plaid Cymru.
On a predicted turnout of 73.3 per cent, the company predicts Mr Lake to gain 44.3 per cent of the vote, with Labour (23.8 per cent) overtaking the Conservatives (13.9 per cent) for second place.
Electoral Calculus suggests Plaid Cymru has an 88 per cent chance of retaining the seat.
The company also predicts a comfortable Plaid victory in Dwyfor Meirionnydd, with the party having a 98 per cent chance of retaining the seat.
Electoral Calculus predicts Plaid to gain a 65.4 per cent share of the vote – up from 45.8 per cent in 2019, with Labour (17.7 per cent) overtaking the Conservatives (9.3 per cent) for second place.
The company shows that Labour will comfortably overturn Craig Williams’ majority in Montgomeryshire and take the new-look Montgomeryshire & Glyndwr seat.
Electoral Calculus predicts Labour to gain a 41.7 per cent share of the vote – up from 26 per cent in 2019, overturning the majority for the Conservatives who fall to 25.6 per cent of the vote down from 52.2 per cent at the last election.
The company gives the Labour chances of victory in the seat as 13 per cent.
Latest figures from pollsters YouGov and their MRP model projects Labour to romp to a landslide overall UK victory, with a 154 seat majority.
Conservatives would win just 155 seats according to the latest model, with Labour under Keir Starmer winning 403 seats nationwide.
Plaid Cymru would remain on four seats, including Ceredigion, according to Yougov, while the Liberal Democrats are set for a parliamentary comeback, rising from 11 seats won at the 2019 election to 49.
Prime Minister Rishi Sunak has said he expects to go to the polls "in the second half" of 2024.
The latest a Parliament can be dissolved for a general election is on the fifth anniversary of the day it first met.
For the current Parliament, that date is 17 December.
However, 25 working days are then allowed to prepare for the election, which means the next election must be held by 28 January 2025.
The next UK General Election, which is widely expected to be held in the autumn with a likely date in early October, will be the first to require residents to show photo ID in order to vote.